Everton scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Coventry City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Coventry City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Everton is softest.
Everton: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Coventry City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Everton scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 56); Everton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 59); Coventry City scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 91); Coventry City concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Everton -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 56 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 56 (32%).
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 59 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 47 read -- then won 14, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 47 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Coventry City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 91 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 91 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 50 read -- then won 24, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 5 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 50 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 02:25 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.