Burton Albion scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Cambridge United scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Burton Albion: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Cambridge United: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Burton Albion scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 58); Burton Albion concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 65); Cambridge United scores most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 73); Cambridge United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Burton Albion -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 58 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 65 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Cambridge United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 0.8 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15.
When it concedes
Of 39 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 39 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 31 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 9, lost 2; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 4 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.