Wycombe Wanderers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Milton Keynes Dons scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Wycombe Wanderers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Milton Keynes Dons is softest.
Wycombe Wanderers: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Milton Keynes Dons: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wycombe Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 73); Wycombe Wanderers concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 67); Milton Keynes Dons scores most in the 31-45+ band (20 of 90); Milton Keynes Dons concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 51). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wycombe Wanderers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 73 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 16, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Milton Keynes Dons -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.9 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 90 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 20; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 17.
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 51 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 2 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 50 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.