Cambridge United scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; AFC Wimbledon scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Cambridge United: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two. AFC Wimbledon: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Cambridge United scores most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 74); Cambridge United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 39); AFC Wimbledon scores most in the 61-75 band (12 of 52); AFC Wimbledon concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 77). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Cambridge United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 15.
When it concedes
Of 39 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 39 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 8, lost 1; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
AFC Wimbledon -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.9 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 77 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 77 (25%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 00:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.