Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 45%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 38%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Accrington Stanley: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Crawley Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Accrington Stanley's numbers over its games, Crawley Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Accrington Stanley's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (36%). In Crawley Town's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 38% of games.
The two sides
Accrington Stanley -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 50 (40%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 50 (44%). At home: 12 of its 25 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 19 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Accrington Stanley's own 50 matches read: Accrington Stanley or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Accrington Stanley itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25.
Crawley Town -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 50 (42%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 50 (46%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 20 (40%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Crawley Town's own 50 matches read: Crawley Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Crawley Town itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.