Cheltenham Town scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Grimsby Town scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Cheltenham Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Grimsby Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Cheltenham Town scores most in the 61-75 band (19 of 61); Cheltenham Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 86); Grimsby Town scores most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 76); Grimsby Town concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 55). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Cheltenham Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 19; 76-90+: 15.
When it concedes
Of 86 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 86 (20%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 13, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 20, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Grimsby Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 76 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 55 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.