Salford City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Port Vale: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Salford City scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 63); Salford City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 58); Port Vale scores most in the 1-15 band (11 of 38); Port Vale concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 67). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Salford City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.0 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 63 (35%).
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 58 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 4 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Port Vale -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.8 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 38 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 11 of 38 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 50 read -- then won 9, drew 2, lost 5; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 06:08 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.