Swindon Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Colchester United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Swindon Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Colchester United is softest.
Swindon Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Colchester United: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Swindon Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 75); Swindon Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 64); Colchester United scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 67); Colchester United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Swindon Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 75 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 75 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 64 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 64 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 6 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Colchester United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 67 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 5 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.