Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Swindon Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Colchester United: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Swindon Town's numbers over its games, Colchester United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Swindon Town's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Colchester United's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games.
The two sides
Swindon Town -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 50 (64%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). At home: 17 of its 25 (68%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 9 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Swindon Town's own 50 matches read: Swindon Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Swindon Town itself held the lead in 16, winning 15. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Colchester United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 50 (36%); over 1.5 in 34 (68%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). Away: over 2.5 in 8 of its 25 (32%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 12 of its 25 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 16 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Colchester United's own 50 matches read: Colchester United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Colchester United itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.