Cheltenham Town scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Chesterfield scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Chesterfield's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Cheltenham Town is softest.
Cheltenham Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Chesterfield: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Cheltenham Town scores most in the 61-75 band (19 of 67); Cheltenham Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 82); Chesterfield scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 72); Chesterfield concedes most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Cheltenham Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 19; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 82 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 82 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 13, drew 7, lost 4; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Chesterfield -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 72 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 8, lost 1; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.