League Two, game week 8 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Salford City the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Oldham Athletic takes 1.25 points a game, Salford City 2.07 -- the block form is Salford City's. +0.47 points a game is the venue form gap, in Oldham Athletic's favour: Oldham Athletic takes 1.79 a game at home over the last two seasons, Salford City 1.32 away. Oldham Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Salford City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Salford City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Oldham Athletic is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 47% of their games, both teams scoring in 44%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Salford City lands the first blow more often (28 of 50 to 24 of 50); Salford City finds its goals latest of all -- 22 of its 66 after the 75th, and Oldham Athletic concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Oldham Athletic 1.46 goals expected, Salford City 0.81, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Oldham Athletic 1.90 (53%), the draw 3.76 (27%), Salford City 4.84 (21%). The market's averages: 2.67, 3.42 and 2.39. The widest gap is on Salford City: the market is shorter (2.39) than our 4.84 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.53 (40%), under 2.5 1.66 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.86, under 2.5 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.57, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Oldham Athletic's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Salford City's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.