League Two, game week 8 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Port Vale is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Port Vale's favour: Port Vale takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Northampton Town 0.58 away. Port Vale scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Northampton Town scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 40%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (17 of 50 and 16 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Port Vale's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Northampton Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Port Vale 1.07 goals expected, Northampton Town 0.69, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Port Vale's figures include last season in the League One, where goals came against different company; Northampton Town's figures include last season in the League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Port Vale 2.26 (44%), the draw 3.08 (32%), Northampton Town 4.29 (23%). The market's averages: 2.04, 3.26 and 3.54. The widest gap is on Northampton Town: the market is shorter (3.54) than our 4.29 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 3.86 (26%), under 2.5 1.35 (74%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.12, under 2.5 1.61. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 3.05 (33%), no 1.49 (67%). The market's averages: yes 1.87, no 1.83. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Port Vale's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (20%). In Northampton Town's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.