Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 40%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Port Vale: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Northampton Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Port Vale's numbers over its games, Northampton Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Port Vale's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (20%). In Northampton Town's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games.
The two sides
Port Vale -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 50 (36%); over 1.5 in 28 (56%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 25 (28%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 17 of its own 50 (34%). At home: 9 of its 25 (36%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 26 (52%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Port Vale's own 50 matches read: Port Vale or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (32%). Port Vale itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 25.
Northampton Town -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 50 (42%); over 1.5 in 33 (66%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 50 (46%). Away: 10 of its 24 (42%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 21 (42%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Northampton Town's own 50 matches read: Northampton Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Northampton Town itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.