Rotherham United scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Crewe Alexandra scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Crewe Alexandra's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Rotherham United is softest.
Rotherham United: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Crewe Alexandra: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Rotherham United scores most in the 61-75 band (10 of 49); Rotherham United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 76); Crewe Alexandra scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 65); Crewe Alexandra concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Rotherham United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 49 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 76 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 76 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 9, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Crewe Alexandra -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 65 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.