Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Rotherham United: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Crewe Alexandra: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Rotherham United's numbers over its games, Crewe Alexandra's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Rotherham United's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Crewe Alexandra's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games.
The two sides
Rotherham United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 34 (68%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 50 (46%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 19 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Rotherham United's own 50 matches read: Rotherham United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Rotherham United itself held the lead in 5, winning 3. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25.
Crewe Alexandra -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 13 of its 25 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 14 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Crewe Alexandra's own 50 matches read: Crewe Alexandra or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (32%). Crewe Alexandra itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.