League Two, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Exeter City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.07 points a game is the venue form gap, in Colchester United's favour: Colchester United takes 1.79 a game at home over the last two seasons, Exeter City 0.72 away. Colchester United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Exeter City scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 33%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Colchester United lands the first blow more often (22 of 50 to 17 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Colchester United's -- two goals clear in 13 of 50, against 7 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Colchester United's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; Colchester United finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 67 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Colchester United 1.53 goals expected, Exeter City 0.76, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Exeter City's figures include last season in the League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Colchester United 1.80 (56%), the draw 3.88 (26%), Exeter City 5.38 (19%). The market's averages: 2.10, 3.50 and 2.96. The widest gap is on Exeter City: the market is shorter (2.96) than our 5.38 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.49 (40%), under 2.5 1.67 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.91, under 2.5 1.82. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.39 (42%), no 1.72 (58%). The market's averages: yes 1.73, no 1.97. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Colchester United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Exeter City's own 25 away matches read, 6 (24%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 33% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.