Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 33%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Colchester United: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Exeter City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Colchester United's numbers over its games, Exeter City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Colchester United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Exeter City's own 25 away matches read, 6 (24%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 33% of games.
The two sides
Colchester United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 50 (38%); over 1.5 in 33 (66%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 24 (38%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). At home: 13 of its 24 (54%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 16 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Colchester United's own 50 matches read: Colchester United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Colchester United itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Exeter City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 50 (38%); over 1.5 in 29 (58%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 25 (44%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 50 (40%). Away: 12 of its 25 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 19 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Exeter City's own 50 matches read: Exeter City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Exeter City itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 25.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.