Grimsby Town scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Northampton Town scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Northampton Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Grimsby Town is softest.
Grimsby Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Northampton Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Grimsby Town scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 76); Grimsby Town concedes most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 56); Northampton Town scores most in the 31-45+ band (8 of 42); Northampton Town concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 75). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Grimsby Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 76 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 8.
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Northampton Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.8 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.7 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 42 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 75 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 50 read -- then won 8, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.