AFC Hornchurch: 3 league matches in the bank. Woking: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: AFC Hornchurch scores most in the 16-30 band (2 of 6); AFC Hornchurch concedes most in the 61-75 band (2 of 5); Woking scores most in the 76-90+ band (25 of 72); Woking concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 61). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
AFC Hornchurch -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 3 league matches; at home, 3.0 for and 0.0 against over 1.
When it scores
Of 6 scored across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 1; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 0.
When it concedes
Of 5 conceded across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 0; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 1.
The first goal
Scored first in 2 of its 3 read -- then won 2, drew 0, lost 0; conceded first in 1 -- pulled back 0 wins and 0 draws from them.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 3 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing.
Woking -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 25. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 25 of 72 (35%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 61 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 49 read -- then won 14, drew 10, lost 1; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 49 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.