Fylde v Worthing

The appraisal

Fylde is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in Fylde's favour: Fylde takes 2.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 1.50 away. Fylde scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Worthing's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Fylde is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 80% of their games, both teams scoring in 80%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.

How it may unfold

If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (4 of 5 and 4 of 5); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Fylde's -- two goals clear in 2 of 5, against 1 of 5; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Fylde's hands -- ahead without winning in 2 of 5; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 3 of 5; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 3 of its 9 after the 75th, and Fylde concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.

That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.

The tissue is a plain goals model: Fylde 1.93 goals expected, Worthing 1.52, from two seasons of scoring rates (2 home matches and 2 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.

Our numbers against the market’s

Match result

Our tissue: Fylde 2.11 (47%), the draw 4.55 (22%), Worthing 3.27 (31%). The market's averages: 2.45, 2.25 and 3.55. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (2.25) than our 4.55 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.

Over or under 2.5 goals

Our tissue: over 2.5 1.49 (67%), under 2.5 3.04 (33%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.48, under 2.5 2.35. Close to our view -- no argument either way.

Both teams to score

Our tissue: yes 1.50 (67%), no 3.02 (33%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.45. Close to our view -- no argument either way.

The 2UP fact

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Fylde's own 2 home matches read, one appeared in 1 (50%). In Worthing's own 2 away matches read, 1 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.

The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.

Built 06:10 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.