Hartlepool United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Woking scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Woking's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hartlepool United is softest.
Hartlepool United: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Woking: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Hartlepool United scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 58); Hartlepool United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 63); Woking scores most in the 76-90+ band (25 of 73); Woking concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 61). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Hartlepool United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 58 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 58 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 63 (38%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Woking -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 25. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 25 of 73 (34%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 61 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 10, lost 1; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.