Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Boston United scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tamworth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Boston United is softest.
Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Boston United: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 72); Tamworth concedes most in the 46-60 band (21 of 83); Boston United scores most in the 46-60 band (16 of 66); Boston United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 71). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Tamworth -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 72 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 83 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Boston United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.5 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15.
When it concedes
Of 71 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 71 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.