Carlisle United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Forest Green Rovers scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 1-15.
Carlisle United: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Forest Green Rovers: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Carlisle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 96); Carlisle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 61); Forest Green Rovers scores most in the 46-60 band (18 of 83); Forest Green Rovers concedes most in the 1-15 band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Carlisle United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.4 for and 1.2 against over 26.
When it scores
Of 96 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 96 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 61 (33%).
The first goal
Scored first in 38 of its 50 read -- then won 29, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 11 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 21 of its 50 read, winning 20 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Forest Green Rovers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 83 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 17.
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 13 of 60 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 8 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 28 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 07:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.