National League, game week 8 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in AFC Hornchurch's favour: Worthing takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, AFC Hornchurch 1.50 away. Worthing scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; AFC Hornchurch scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (5 of 7 to 3 of 7); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often AFC Hornchurch's -- two goals clear in 2 of 7, against 1 of 7; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 7; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 4 of its 13 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Worthing 1.91 goals expected, AFC Hornchurch 1.57, from two seasons of scoring rates (4 home matches and 4 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Worthing 2.18 (46%), the draw 4.54 (22%), AFC Hornchurch 3.11 (32%). The market's averages: 2.10, 3.70 and 2.87. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.70) than our 4.54 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.48 (68%), under 2.5 3.09 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.40. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.48 (68%), no 3.08 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.45. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 4 home matches read, one appeared in 2 (50%). In AFC Hornchurch's own 4 away matches read, 3 (75%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:03 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.