Worthing v AFC Hornchurch

National League, game week 8 — UK time

Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets.

What this step says

Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.

Skip to the appraisal — and the market

Worthing: 7 league matches in the bank. AFC Hornchurch: 7 league matches in the bank.

The question this step asks

Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.

How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Worthing's numbers over its games, AFC Hornchurch's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 4 home matches read, one appeared in 2 (50%). In AFC Hornchurch's own 4 away matches read, 3 (75%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games.

The two sides

Worthing -- at home

Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 6 of its own 7 (86%); over 1.5 in 6 (86%); over 3.5 in 5 (71%). At home: over 2.5 in 3 of its 4 (75%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 6 of its own 7 (86%). At home: 3 of its 4 (75%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 7 (14%); failed to score in 0 (0%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Worthing's own 7 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 3 (43%). Worthing itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 2 of 4.

AFC Hornchurch -- away

Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 5 of its own 7 (71%); over 1.5 in 5 (71%); over 3.5 in 2 (29%). Away: over 2.5 in 4 of its 4 (100%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 3 of its own 7 (43%). Away: 3 of its 4 (75%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 2 of its own 7 (29%); failed to score in 2 (29%).
Two goals clear
Counted over AFC Hornchurch's own 7 matches read: AFC Hornchurch or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 4 (57%). AFC Hornchurch itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 3 of 4.

Built 07:03 from matches completed before kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator — not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.