Kidderminster Harriers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Gateshead scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Kidderminster Harriers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Gateshead is softest.
Kidderminster Harriers: 7 league matches in the bank. Gateshead: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Kidderminster Harriers scores most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 12); Kidderminster Harriers concedes most in the 16-30 band (4 of 7); Gateshead scores most in the 46-60 band (12 of 57); Gateshead concedes most in the 76-90+ band (27 of 96). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Kidderminster Harriers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 7 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 0.5 against over 4.
When it scores
Of 12 scored across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 12 (33%).
When it concedes
Of 7 conceded across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 1; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 0; 76-90+: 1.
The first goal
Scored first in 4 of its 7 read -- then won 3, drew 1, lost 0; conceded first in 3 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 7 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 1.
Gateshead -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 2.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 96 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 27. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 27 of 96 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 24, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 07:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.