Carlisle United scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Woking scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Woking's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Carlisle United is softest.
Carlisle United: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Woking: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Carlisle United scores most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 91); Carlisle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 61); Woking scores most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 76); Woking concedes most in the 61-75 band (12 of 55). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Carlisle United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 1.2 against over 26.
When it scores
Of 91 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 91 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 61 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 37 of its 50 read -- then won 28, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 0 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 50 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Woking -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 76 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 76 (32%).
When it concedes
Of 55 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 55 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 9, lost 1; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.