Sutton United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Forest Green Rovers scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 1-15.
Sutton United: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Forest Green Rovers: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Sutton United scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 65); Sutton United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 79); Forest Green Rovers scores most in the 46-60 band (18 of 84); Forest Green Rovers concedes most in the 1-15 band (14 of 64). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Sutton United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.7 against over 26.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 65 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 79 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 79 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Forest Green Rovers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.3 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 84 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 64 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 64 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 8 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 28 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.