Worthing scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Halifax Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Worthing's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Halifax Town is softest.
Worthing: 9 league matches in the bank. Halifax Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (5 of 17); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (7 of 15); Halifax Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 79); Halifax Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 68). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Worthing -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 9 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 5.
When it scores
Of 17 scored across its own 9 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 5 of 17 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 15 conceded across its own 9 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 15 (47%).
The first goal
Scored first in 7 of its 9 read -- then won 3, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 2 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 9 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Halifax Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 79 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 79 (30%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 68 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.