National League, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Tamworth the bigger side: 11th against 19th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tamworth takes 1.77 points a game, Sutton United 1.26 -- the block form is Tamworth's. +0.54 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Tamworth takes 1.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Sutton United 1.17 away. Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Sutton United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (21 of 50 and 23 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Sutton United's -- two goals clear in 11 of 50, against 5 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Sutton United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 19 of its 73 after the 75th; Sutton United finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 66 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Tamworth 1.48 goals expected, Sutton United 1.11, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Tamworth 2.19 (46%), the draw 3.86 (26%), Sutton United 3.52 (28%). The market's averages: 2.28, 3.35 and 2.73. The widest gap is on Sutton United: the market is shorter (2.73) than our 3.52 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.08 (48%), under 2.5 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.60, under 2.5 2.14. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.93 (52%), no 2.08 (48%). The market's averages: yes 1.51, no 2.36. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Sutton United's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.