Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Sutton United: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Tamworth's numbers over its games, Sutton United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Sutton United's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games.
The two sides
Tamworth -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 50 (64%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 23 (46%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 37 of its own 50 (74%). At home: 16 of its 24 (67%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 8 (16%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Tamworth's own 50 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 24.
Sutton United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 12 of its 24 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 13 (26%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Sutton United's own 50 matches read: Sutton United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Sutton United itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Built 21:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.