National League, game week 15 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Scunthorpe United the bigger side: 5th against 11th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tamworth takes 1.06 points a game, Scunthorpe United 1.71 -- the block form is Scunthorpe United's. +0.48 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Tamworth takes 1.64 a game at home over the last two seasons, Scunthorpe United 1.16 away. Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Scunthorpe United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 69%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (21 of 50 and 17 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Scunthorpe United's -- two goals clear in 11 of 50, against 5 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 73 after the 75th; Scunthorpe United finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 75 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Tamworth 1.74 goals expected, Scunthorpe United 1.28, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Tamworth 2.07 (48%), the draw 4.25 (24%), Scunthorpe United 3.55 (28%). The market's averages: 2.15, 3.25 and 2.87. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.25) than our 4.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.72 (58%), under 2.5 2.38 (42%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.44, under 2.5 2.70. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.68 (59%), no 2.47 (41%). The market's averages: yes 1.39, no 2.73. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (36%). In Scunthorpe United's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 10:02 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.