Carlisle United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Harrogate Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Carlisle United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Harrogate Town is softest.
Carlisle United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Harrogate Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Carlisle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 92); Carlisle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 62); Harrogate Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 60); Harrogate Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 74). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Carlisle United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.1 for and 1.4 against over 26.
When it scores
Of 92 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 92 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 62 (32%).
The first goal
Scored first in 35 of its 50 read -- then won 26, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 50 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Harrogate Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.3 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 60 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 60 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 74 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 74 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 2, lost 6; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 02:24 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.