Scottish Championship, game week 4 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Dunfermline Athletic and Raith Rovers finished near neighbours last season -- 4th and 5th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dunfermline Athletic takes 1.85 points a game, Raith Rovers 1.57 -- nothing between them. +0.47 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dunfermline Athletic's favour: Dunfermline Athletic takes 1.42 a game at home over the last two seasons, Raith Rovers 0.95 away. Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 42% of their games, both teams scoring in 36%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Dunfermline Athletic lands the first blow more often (18 of 39 to 13 of 39); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (12 of its 44 conceded before the 16th); Raith Rovers finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 48 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Dunfermline Athletic 1.15 goals expected, Raith Rovers 0.68, from two seasons of scoring rates (19 home matches and 19 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Dunfermline Athletic 2.14 (47%), the draw 3.19 (31%), Raith Rovers 4.56 (22%). The market's averages: 2.45, 3.25 and 2.50. The widest gap is on Raith Rovers: the market is shorter (2.50) than our 4.56 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 3.61 (28%), under 2.5 1.38 (72%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.89, under 2.5 1.78. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.96 (34%), no 1.51 (66%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.01. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dunfermline Athletic's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (47%). In Raith Rovers's own 19 away matches read, 10 (53%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.