Scottish Championship, game week 5 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Arbroath and Dunfermline Athletic finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 4th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Arbroath takes 1.53 points a game, Dunfermline Athletic 0.75 -- the block form is Arbroath's. +0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arbroath's favour: Arbroath takes 1.80 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dunfermline Athletic 1.30 away. Arbroath scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Dunfermline Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arbroath is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 42% of their games, both teams scoring in 42%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 40 and 19 of 40); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (12 of its 44 conceded before the 16th); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Arbroath's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 40; Dunfermline Athletic finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 54 after the 75th, and Arbroath concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Arbroath 1.28 goals expected, Dunfermline Athletic 1.24, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Arbroath 2.68 (37%), the draw 3.72 (27%), Dunfermline Athletic 2.79 (36%). The market's averages: 2.55, 3.05 and 2.45. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.05) than our 3.72 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.17 (46%), under 2.5 1.86 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.11, under 2.5 1.70. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.95 (51%), no 2.05 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.81, no 1.88. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Dunfermline Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 13 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.