Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 42% of their games, both teams scoring in 42%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Arbroath: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Dunfermline Athletic: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arbroath's numbers over its games, Dunfermline Athletic's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Dunfermline Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 13 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games.
The two sides
Arbroath -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 40 (42%); over 1.5 in 26 (65%); over 3.5 in 7 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 20 (40%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 40 (50%). At home: 11 of its 20 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 40 (30%); failed to score in 15 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arbroath's own 40 matches read: Arbroath or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (38%). Arbroath itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20.
Dunfermline Athletic -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 40 (42%); over 1.5 in 29 (72%); over 3.5 in 11 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 14 of its own 40 (35%). Away: 7 of its 20 (35%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 40 (42%); failed to score in 13 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Dunfermline Athletic's own 40 matches read: Dunfermline Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (55%). Dunfermline Athletic itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 20.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.