Scottish Championship, game week 5 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Partick Thistle the bigger side: 2nd against 7th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Partick Thistle takes 2.00 points a game, Ayr United 0.92 -- the block form is Partick Thistle's. +1.25 points a game is the venue form gap, in Partick Thistle's favour: Partick Thistle takes 2.30 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ayr United 1.05 away. Partick Thistle scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 38%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (22 of 40 and 19 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Partick Thistle's -- two goals clear in 11 of 40, against 6 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Partick Thistle's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 40.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Partick Thistle 1.59 goals expected, Ayr United 0.72, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Partick Thistle 1.71 (58%), the draw 4.01 (25%), Ayr United 5.99 (17%). The market's averages: 1.55, 3.80 and 4.80. The widest gap is on Ayr United: the market is shorter (4.80) than our 5.99 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.46 (41%), under 2.5 1.69 (59%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.78, under 2.5 2.01. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.45 (41%), no 1.69 (59%). The market's averages: yes 1.85, no 1.88. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Partick Thistle's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Ayr United's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 38% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.