Scottish Championship, game week 5 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Queen's Park and Greenock Morton finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 8th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Queen's Park takes 1.83 points a game, Greenock Morton 1.00 -- the block form is Queen's Park's. +0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen's Park's favour: Queen's Park takes 1.10 a game at home over the last two seasons, Greenock Morton 0.80 away. Queen's Park scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Greenock Morton lands the first blow more often (18 of 40 to 11 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Greenock Morton's -- two goals clear in 5 of 40, against 1 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Greenock Morton's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 40; Queen's Park finds its goals latest of all -- 11 of its 36 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen's Park 1.22 goals expected, Greenock Morton 1.14, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Queen's Park 2.64 (38%), the draw 3.58 (28%), Greenock Morton 2.92 (34%). The market's averages: 2.25, 3.20 and 3.00. The widest gap is on Queen's Park: the market is shorter (2.25) than our 2.64 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.38 (42%), under 2.5 1.72 (58%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.98, under 2.5 1.71. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.09 (48%), no 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: yes 1.75, no 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen's Park's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (30%). In Greenock Morton's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.