Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Queen's Park: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Greenock Morton: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queen's Park's numbers over its games, Greenock Morton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen's Park's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (30%). In Greenock Morton's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games.
The two sides
Queen's Park -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 40 (38%); over 1.5 in 27 (68%); over 3.5 in 7 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 20 (35%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 40 (52%). At home: 10 of its 20 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 40 (25%); failed to score in 15 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Queen's Park's own 40 matches read: Queen's Park or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (30%). Queen's Park itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 20.
Greenock Morton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 40 (40%); over 1.5 in 30 (75%); over 3.5 in 9 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 40 (55%). Away: 13 of its 20 (65%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 13 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Greenock Morton's own 40 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (30%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 20.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.