Scottish Championship, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.75 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Stenhousemuir takes 2.15 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.40 away. Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 35% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stenhousemuir lands the first blow more often (27 of 41 to 23 of 41); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Partick Thistle's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.57 goals expected, Partick Thistle 0.84, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Stenhousemuir's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Stenhousemuir 1.83 (55%), the draw 3.95 (25%), Partick Thistle 5.01 (20%). The market's averages: 4.90, 3.65 and 1.64. The widest gap is on Stenhousemuir: the market offers 4.90 against our 1.83. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.31 (43%), under 2.5 1.76 (57%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.90, under 2.5 1.92. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.23 (45%), no 1.81 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.80, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Partick Thistle's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:32 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.