Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Greenock Morton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Inverness CT is softest.
Inverness CT: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Greenock Morton: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Inverness CT scores most in the 61-75 band (15 of 67); Inverness CT concedes most in the 16-30 band (8 of 33); Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (10 of 40); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 64). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Inverness CT -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.7 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 33 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 8 of 33 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 43 read -- then won 21, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 43 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Greenock Morton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.8 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 40 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 64 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 64 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 43 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 43 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.