Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Inverness CT: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Greenock Morton: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Inverness CT's numbers over its games, Greenock Morton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Greenock Morton's own 21 away matches read, 7 (33%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games.
The two sides
Inverness CT -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 43 (40%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 12 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 21 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 43 (49%). At home: 11 of its 21 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 43 (47%); failed to score in 6 (14%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Inverness CT's own 43 matches read: Inverness CT or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (44%). Inverness CT itself held the lead in 15, winning 15. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
Greenock Morton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 43 (42%); over 1.5 in 32 (74%); over 3.5 in 10 (23%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 43 (56%). Away: 14 of its 21 (67%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 43 (21%); failed to score in 14 (33%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Greenock Morton's own 43 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (30%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 21.
Built 06:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.