Scottish Championship, game week 8 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Livingston is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.20 points a game is the venue form gap, in Raith Rovers's favour: Raith Rovers takes 1.76 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.57 away. Raith Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Raith Rovers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Livingston is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 49% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (15 of 43 and 15 of 45); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Raith Rovers's -- two goals clear in 12 of 43, against 6 of 45; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Livingston's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 45; Raith Rovers finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 54 after the 75th, and Livingston concedes most in that same spell; Livingston finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 50 after the 75th, and Raith Rovers concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Raith Rovers 2.39 goals expected, Livingston 0.92, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Livingston's figures include last season in the Scottish Premiership, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Raith Rovers 1.43 (70%), the draw 5.76 (17%), Livingston 7.85 (13%). The market's averages: 2.37, 3.25 and 2.70. The widest gap is on Raith Rovers: the market offers 2.37 against our 1.43. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.56 (64%), under 2.5 2.79 (36%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.88, under 2.5 1.87. The market offers more than our number on over 2.5 -- if our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: yes 1.83 (55%), no 2.20 (45%). The market's averages: yes 1.68, no 2.04. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Raith Rovers's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (71%). In Livingston's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 09:01 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.