Queen's Park: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Inverness CT: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Queen's Park scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 39); Queen's Park concedes most in the 16-30 band (14 of 63); Inverness CT scores most in the 61-75 band (16 of 71); Inverness CT concedes most in the 16-30 band (8 of 33). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Queen's Park -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 39 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 39 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 12 of its 45 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 0; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 45 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Inverness CT -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 0.8 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 71 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 33 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 8 of 33 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 45 read -- then won 23, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 45 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 19:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.