Scottish Championship, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Partick Thistle the bigger side: 2nd against 7th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Ayr United takes 0.86 points a game, Partick Thistle 2.00 -- the block form is Partick Thistle's. -0.37 points a game is the venue form gap, in Partick Thistle's favour: Ayr United takes 1.04 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.41 away. Ayr United scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Partick Thistle's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Partick Thistle lands the first blow more often (25 of 45 to 21 of 46); Ayr United is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (11 of its 58 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Partick Thistle's -- two goals clear in 12 of 45, against 7 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Partick Thistle's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 45.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Ayr United 0.97 goals expected, Partick Thistle 1.31, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Ayr United 3.63 (28%), the draw 3.57 (28%), Partick Thistle 2.25 (44%). The market's averages: 4.00, 3.60 and 1.70. The widest gap is on Partick Thistle: the market is shorter (1.70) than our 2.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.51 (40%), under 2.5 1.66 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.80, under 2.5 2.00. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.21 (45%), no 1.83 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.75, no 2.03. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (26%). In Partick Thistle's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 22:01 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.