Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Ayr United: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Partick Thistle: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Ayr United's numbers over its games, Partick Thistle's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (26%). In Partick Thistle's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games.
The two sides
Ayr United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 46 (37%); over 1.5 in 33 (72%); over 3.5 in 7 (15%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 23 (30%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 46 (59%). At home: 13 of its 23 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 46 (22%); failed to score in 13 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Ayr United's own 46 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (30%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 23.
Partick Thistle -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 45 (40%); over 1.5 in 31 (69%); over 3.5 in 10 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 22 (41%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 45 (51%). Away: 13 of its 22 (59%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 45 (42%); failed to score in 10 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Partick Thistle's own 45 matches read: Partick Thistle or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (38%). Partick Thistle itself held the lead in 12, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22.
Built 22:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.