Scottish Championship, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Livingston is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dunfermline Athletic's favour: Dunfermline Athletic takes 1.57 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.67 away. Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 51%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Dunfermline Athletic lands the first blow more often (22 of 44 to 16 of 48); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (12 of its 46 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Dunfermline Athletic's -- two goals clear in 11 of 44, against 7 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Livingston's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 48; Livingston finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 54 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Dunfermline Athletic 1.70 goals expected, Livingston 0.86, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Livingston's figures include last season in the Scottish Premiership, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Dunfermline Athletic 1.75 (57%), the draw 4.18 (24%), Livingston 5.31 (19%). The market's averages: 2.50, 3.30 and 2.35. The widest gap is on Livingston: the market is shorter (2.35) than our 5.31 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.13 (47%), under 2.5 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.74, under 2.5 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.13 (47%), no 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.62, no 2.20. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dunfermline Athletic's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Livingston's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 51% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.