Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Stenhousemuir: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Raith Rovers: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 61); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (8 of 31); Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 58); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 48). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Stenhousemuir -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 0.6 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 31 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5.
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 45 read -- then won 24, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 11 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 45 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Raith Rovers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.0 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 58 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 58 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 48 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 48 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 46 read -- then won 15, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 46 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.