Scottish Championship, game week 9 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Stenhousemuir takes 1.95 points a game, Dunfermline Athletic 0.67 -- the block form is Stenhousemuir's. +0.76 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Stenhousemuir takes 2.17 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dunfermline Athletic 1.42 away. Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Dunfermline Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stenhousemuir is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 33% of their games, both teams scoring in 36%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stenhousemuir lands the first blow more often (31 of 47 to 23 of 47); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (13 of its 47 conceded before the 16th).
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.34 goals expected, Dunfermline Athletic 0.84, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Stenhousemuir's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Stenhousemuir 2.05 (49%), the draw 3.57 (28%), Dunfermline Athletic 4.30 (23%). The market's averages: 2.80, 3.30 and 1.89. The widest gap is on Dunfermline Athletic: the market is shorter (1.89) than our 4.30 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.69 (37%), under 2.5 1.59 (63%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.20, under 2.5 1.65. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.39 (42%), no 1.72 (58%). The market's averages: yes 1.88, no 1.78. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (43%). In Dunfermline Athletic's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 09:02 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.