Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 43% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Stenhousemuir: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Livingston: 50 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Premiership.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Stenhousemuir's numbers over its games, Livingston's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Livingston's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games.
The two sides
Stenhousemuir -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 14 of its own 48 (29%); over 1.5 in 30 (62%); over 3.5 in 9 (19%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 24 (38%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 17 of its own 48 (35%). At home: 10 of its 24 (42%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 24 of its own 48 (50%); failed to score in 11 (23%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 48 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (42%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Livingston -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 17 (34%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 50 (18%); failed to score in 16 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Livingston's own 50 matches read: Livingston or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Livingston itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Built 21:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.